Zero House Price Benefit for HS2 Destination Cities
House prices in the three major cities to be linked to London by the HS2 railway project are currently growing in value 10% slower than the national average, based on new research announced today from Groundsure. The HS2 city house prices are also rising much slower than regions along the rest of the proposed route.
The Groundsure research compared areas close to the proposed HS2 stations with those along the rest of the route over the past five years. Areas close to (within 5km of) the proposed stations* saw a smaller price increase, compared with other regions along the route. Houses near Birmingham station have risen by only 0.8%, Leeds station by 7.9% and Manchester by 10.4%, against a 15% average house price growth along the route (not near stations).
Groundsure investigated whether this slower percentage growth was due to the predominantly urban nature of areas near to stations, compared with the rural areas along the rest of the HS2 route. However, this does not explain the difference in house price growth, with only a minor difference (1%) identified nationally between urban and rural areas (see table 2 below).
The current changes in house prices found in this research are in contrast to Chancellor George Osborne’s prediction that the Y-shaped line will be: “…the engine for growth in the north and the Midlands.”**
Dan Montagnani, managing director of Groundsure said:
“Our research shows that the argument from HS2 supporters, that areas to be linked by the project need the development to boost local economies, remains valid. Particularly as house prices near the HS2 city railway stations are not keeping up with the rest of the country.”
Montagnani added: “When starting our research, we had expected Birmingham to be one of the first cities to benefit economically with a faster connection to the capital, which is expected to be operational by 2023. But instead, we’ve found that house prices near the Birmingham HS2 station have remained relatively static. This suggests that any equivalent of the Crossrail effect, which has seen significant house price rises near to new stations along the new route across London, is some way off as yet.”
Groundsure created this report using Land Registry Price Paid data from 2009 (when the HS2 project was announced) to 2014 along the HS2 route. Groundsure provide a range of environmental data reports for solicitors, homebuyers, businesses, consultants, surveyors and lenders to make informed property-transaction decisions.
*The HS2 railway stations are Manchester Piccadilly, Manchester Airport, Leeds New Lane, Sheffield Meadowhall, East Midlands Hub, Birmingham Curzon Street, Birmingham Interchange (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Speed_2)
Notes to editors
Table 1: Percentage change in house prices along the HS2 route, 2009-2014
HS2 and House Prices - Groundsure Investigation Headline Figures
|% Change in House Prices||09/10||10/11||11/12||12/13||13/14||09/14 (relative)|
|Within 5km of Manchester Branch Station*||4.63216||-1.90277||-1.50269||3.82485||5.18309||10.41%|
|Within 5km of Leeds Branch Station**||6.21672||-5.38325||-0.66184||-0.84113||8.9936||7.90%|
|Within 5km of Birmingham Station***||0.41467||-8.09565||-3.3117||4.57494||8.0198||0.79%|
|Within 5km of HS2 route (excluding station areas)||6.31252||-1.82073||1.01776||2.21592||6.32856||14.60%|
|England & Wales (excluding London)||6.4335||-0.79319||0.744738||3.22872||6.53569||16.99%|
|Average House Prices Paid in year||2009||2010||2011||2012||2013||2014|
|Within 5km of Manchester Branch Station||£143,772.19||£157,069.47||£151,774.78||£145,700.01||£153,024.79||£158,895.62|
|Within 5km of Leeds Branch Station||£116,420.45||£123,714.22||£115,158.12||£116,642.96||£114,167.22||£122,801.93|
|Within 5km of Birmingham Station||£125,231.78||£131,958.41||£128,203.76||£126,223.86||£135,041.63||£143,790.29|
|Within 5km of HS2 route (excluding station areas)||£174,797.77||£186,861.71||£183,604.14||£185,442.16||£188,507.25||£199,697.64|
|England & Wales (excluding London)||£187,391.84||£200,109.27||£197,421.33||£198,032.23||£203,704.69||£218,432.19|
*Manchester Piccadilly, Manchester Airport
**Leeds New Lane, Sheffield Meadowhall, East Midlands Hub
***Birmingham Curzon Street, Birmingham Interchange
NB. It should be noted that the average house prices here listed are based upon Land Registry Price Paid data, data that has certain exclusions - details of which can be found here
Due to these exclusions our figures will differ from official releases on average house price.
Table 2: Urban/rural house price changes along HS2 route and UK, 2009-2014
For all data and graphs demonstrating the house price data and HS2 link, go to:
Groundsure is the UK authority on environmental risks like land contamination, flooding and ground stability. Their expert consultancy and unmatched data quality provide the most reliable, accurate information and guidance to support property transaction decision-making.